
Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
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<p>The outlook has been viewed through the lens of a strong cyclical lift clashing with a set of geopolitical drags. The past week has delivered positive news on the cycle, but this also comes with news of an intensifying energy shock and trade war. As central banks weigh these forces, they are remaining constructive on growth and thus focus is on ongoing inflation pressures.</p> <p> </p> <p>Speaker:</p> <p>Bruce Kasman </p> <p>Joseph Lupton</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026. </p> <p>This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients plea...

<p>Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the latest on the Western European economy, which is seeing improving growth face off against yet another energy price shock.</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 24 July, 2026. </p> <p>This communication is provided for information purposes only.</p> <p>Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. </p> <p>© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent fr...

<p>While there are considerable crosscurrents on both the growth and inflation fronts, our views remain squarely focused on resilient global growth (with risks biased to the upside) and a 2H26 global inflation profile that downshifts to a still elevated level. </p> <p> </p> <p>Speakers:</p> <p>Bruce Kasman</p> <p>Joseph Lupton</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026.</p> <p> <br> This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be...

<p>Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks continue to discuss upside risks to growth (despite the renewed tensions in Hormuz), and they preview next week’s ECB meeting and a new UK PM.</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 17 July, 2026. </p> <p>This communication is provided for information purposes only.</p> <p>© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material rece...

<p>In our forecast, which the consensus and market have come to over the past months (resilient growth, sticky inflation, hawkish central banks), the distinctiveness has diminished. However, this doesn’t stop us from worrying about things, or arguing about them. The baseline is still for continued expansion with a bit of upside risk driven by an unstoppable consumer, but downsides can still be seen in the tail.</p> <p> </p> <p>Speakers:</p> <p>Bruce Kasman</p> <p>Joseph Lupton</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.</p> <p> <br> This communication is provided for information purpo...

<p>This week, Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss whether the latest data out of the Euro area raise upside risks to growth and what the Le Pen court ruling means for France. </p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026. </p> <p>This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. </p> <p>© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly proh...

<p>An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair Warsh ensues after this week’s comments in Sintra.</p> <p> </p> <p>Speakers:</p> <p>Bruce Kasman</p> <p>Joseph Lupton</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 2 July 2026. </p> <p>This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. A...

<p>Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026. </p> <p>This communication is provided for information purposes only.</p> <p>For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. </p> <p>© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or...

<p>Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on household purchasing power. However, monthly CPI gains have started to cool and June’s sharp decline in oil prices sets up a meaningful deceleration in headline momentum; if Brent holds near current levels, headline inflation could slide below ~2%ar and support 2H26 growth. While the difficult trade-off posed by a shock that raises inflation and lowers growth is being removed, central banks still ne...

<p>The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high that the expansion is on an upturn. This shifts the conversation to the next battle: If, when, and by how much will central banks need to tap the brake to get the inflation contained.</p> <p> </p> <p>Speakers:</p> <p>Bruce Kasman</p> <p>Joseph Lupton</p> <p> </p> <p>This podcast was recorded on 26 Ju...