NAB Morning Call
Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Weekend Edition : Minotaur’s Funds Management by AI
<p>Friday 6th February 2026</p><br><p>Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.</p><br><p>This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional m...
Job slowdown and more AI worries
<p>Friday 6th February 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>US markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by...
Tech hit, Iran delays, JOLTs today
<p>Thursday 5th February 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>Tech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and...
RBA suggests a longer road to lower inflation
<p>Tuesday 3rd February 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>The RBA’s widely expected rate hike to 3.85% stole the show, but it was the sharper tone in the Statement on Monetary Policy and Michelle Bullock’s press conference that really moved markets, with the Bank now warning of broader‑based inflation pressures and pushing its return‑to‑target timeline all the way out to mid‑2028. The Aussie dollar surged past 70 US cents as equities softened and bond yields climbed. Meanwhile gold has bounced back a little, the US...
RBA’s new forecasts, no jobs data from the US
<p>Tuesday 3rd February 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>With markets all but certain the RBA will lift rates today, attention turns to the Bank’s updated forecasts. Meanwhile traders navigate a week without US jobs data thanks to Washington’s partial shutdown. A stronger US dollar, buoyant equities and rising bond yields set the backdrop, alongside a hawkish market reaction to Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and a punchy US ISM showing growth in orders and production but weaker employment. Oil has slumped, gold has...
Gold goes cold as Fed takes a Warsh
<p>Monday 2nd February 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>Today’s episode digs into the market whiplash triggered by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair — a move that nudged the US dollar higher, knocked the Aussie lower, and sent precious metals into a full‑blown plunge, even as equities and bonds delivered a more mixed, almost reluctant response. We unpack whether the gold and silver surge was really about Fed independence, revisit Warsh’s crisis‑era credentials and his scepticism...
Weekend Edition: An oil glut amidst geopolitical uncertainty
<p>Friday 23rd January 2026</p><br><p>Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.</p><br><p>Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction...
Too much AI? Will Trump strike Iran? China boosts iron ore.
<p>Friday 30th January 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>Microsoft was hammered overnight on fears it’s pushing too hard, too fast on AI investment, a sharp contrast to Meta, which is spending heavily too but can point to AI‑driven ad revenue as proof it’s paying off; add in rising speculation that Washington is preparing to strike Iran unless a new nuclear deal materialises, a tension clearly visible in a 3% jump in oil, while iron ore is climbing on China’s effective scrapping...
Fed on hold for how long? RBA hike even more likely
<p>Thursday 29th January 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>The Fed kept rates on hold, with two dissenters calling for a 25bp cut, but the real question for investors is how long the central bank stays on pause after three cuts already. NAB’s Sally Auld unpacked a statement that kept the door open to further easing but gave no hint of timing, against stubborn inflation and falling jobless claims. Australia’s Q4 CPI surprised on the upside to many, heightening expectations for an RBA hi...
Greenback goes even lower
<p>Wednesday 28th January 2026</p><br><p>NAB Markets Research Disclaimer </p><p>Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB</p><br><p>The dollar has weakened again, lifting the Aussie and most majors, while oil, equities and spot gold all pushed higher in a broadly risk‑positive session. Bond moves are mild but yields are edging up across several markets, and silver is having a wild swing lower. Taylor Nugent joins us as the NAB Business Survey shows a rebound in conditions and confidence, capacity utilisation easing only slightly, and Q4 CPI likely to come in above the...
