Forward Guidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBWFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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Robinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving Onchain
<p>Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain</p> <p>04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid?</p> <p>06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream<...
America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup
<p>Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?</p> <p>08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks</p> <p>14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields...
The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup
<p>The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>02:21 Why Bond Yields...
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
<p>What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?</p> <p>08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading</p> <p>13:11 The Return Of Stagflation</p> <p>21:06 Is The F...
The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt
<p>Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade.</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed</p> <p>10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?</p> <p>...
The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup
<p>Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?</p> <p>06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be...
Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber
<p>The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural?</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken?</p> <p>10:23 From QE...
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
<p>The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields.</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent</p> <p>05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent?</p> <p>08:42 Druck’s AI...
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
<p>Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.</p> <p><br></p> <p>This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game</p> <p>12:53 Is This Fi...
The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale
<p>Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!</p> <p><br></p> <p>TIMESTAMPS:</p> <p>00:00 Intro</p> <p>01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime</p> <p>06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder</p> <p>14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market</p> <p>20:57 Inside The Fe...
