The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events!
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Who's Running Tehran?
<p>Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro</p><p>(00:41) - War Week Context</p><p>(01:56) - Reza Returns</p><p>(02:50) - How Long Can It Last</p><p>(08:02) - Damage and...
Decapitation Strike
<p>Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran. </p><p>Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets</p><p>(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber...
Healthy Climate Skepticism (?)
<p>North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year’s forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and...
The Cold War That Wasn’t
<p>Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)</p><p>(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks</p><p>(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains...
Takaichi's New Japan
<p>Something extraordinary just happened in Japan... but of course no one is paying attention!</p><p>A ruling party written off as tired and scandal-plagued didn’t just win - they delivered a generational landslide. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, led her Liberal Democrats into a victory so complete that the opposition straight up imploded (see: winning 2/3 of Parliament). At the center of the dust cloud stands a leader arguing Japan must harden itself for a dangerous world: rebuild industry, rearm, and rely on no one but itself. This isn’t incremental politics. It’s a bet on nat...
War With Iran
<p>Hamidreza Azizi joins the pod for an emergency episode on the current state of Iran amidst escalating tensions with the United States. Azizi examines the potential for conflict between the two and and offers insights into Iran's internal politics, the role of the IRGC, and the possible repercussions of a U.S. attack. </p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Introduction</p><p>(01:46) - Iran's Domestic Situation</p><p>(02:44) - US-Iran Tensions and Military Movements</p><p>(04:08) - Iran's Response and Internal Dynamics</p><p>(09:41) - Potential Scenarios and Outcomes</p><p>(28:31) - Iran's Military Capabilities and...
Land, Debt, and Decline
<p>Jacob sits down with agricultural economist Dr. David Kohl to unpack what a brutal downturn in farm profitability reveals about globalization, capital concentration, labor shortages, and long-term economic resilience. The two touch on tariffs, debt, and the limits of export-led growth, and then the conversation widens to examine how technology, demographics, and financial fragility are reshaping both rural America and the national economy. </p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Introduction </p><p>(00:56) - Discussion on US Ag Economy</p><p>(02:17) - Challenges and Opportunities in Agriculture</p><p>(07:09) - Land Values and Institutional Investments</p><p>(12:24...
The Black Sea Isn’t Quiet Anymore
<p>Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets, joins the pod to talk about about why the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global grain trade far less than expected - and why that may be changing. Jacob and Sizov examine recent attacks on shipping, the fragile balance keeping Black Sea exports moving, and how escalation could ripple through wheat, corn, energy markets, and global food security. Of course, they also tie in Iran, China’s commodity buying, and what geopolitical risk really means for global agriculture.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Intro</p><p>(00:24) - Black Sea Ge...
Fed Under Fire
<p>Economist Mike Konczal joins the show to unpack the escalating pressure campaign against the Federal Reserve, new inflation data, and what all of this means for the U.S. economy. Jacob and Mike discuss whether Trump’s confrontation with Jerome Powell is genuinely dangerous, how tariffs and immigration policy are shaping prices and growth, and why the labor market looks weaker beneath the surface. Mike is more cautiously optimistic than we expected - but the downside risks remain real. </p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(01:26) - Fed and Executive Branch Dynamics</p><p>(05:49) - Economic Consequences and Ma...
Measuring Risk
<p>Shock, instability, climate stress, financial panic, political rupture: the question isn’t who avoids disruption, but who absorbs it and keeps moving. Jacob invites on Parag Khanna of AlphaGeo to wrestle with a harder metric than dominance or growth - resilience. What actually allows states, systems, and societies to adapt when the rules keep changing? Shapiro and Khanna explore the events driving this week's headlines (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) and dive into the underlying systems that actually determine outcomes: resilience, adaptation, and the capacity to recover when shocks pile up. </p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Introduction </p>...
