The Jacob Shapiro Podcast
Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events!
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The Off Ramp Is Right Now
<p>Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome </p><p>(00:36) - Prewar Oil...
The View From Delhi
<p>Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome</p><p>(00:57) - Global Economy Worries</p><p>(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja</p><p>(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained</p><p>(03:26...
Soft Power is Underrated
<p>Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome</p><p>(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question</p><...
Renegade Scottish Economics
<p>Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome And Setup</p><p>(01:30) - Why Scotland Now</p><p>(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins</p><p>(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy</p><...
Firepower Is Not a Strategy
<p>Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate. </p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:27) - Why No US Attack</p><p>(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage</p><p>(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk</p><p>(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction</p><p>(06:26) - War...
An Imminent, Underreported War
<p>Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today - a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that's been through hell once already. </p><p>If you enjoyed the conversation, check out more of Jody's work below!</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(01:22) - Meet Jodi in Nairobi</p><p>(01:38) - Why Ethiopia Matters</p><p>(03:20) - Ethiopia Basics</p><p>(05:44...
Escape from Tel Aviv
<p>Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home - a reminder that geopolitics is always personal. </p><p>Note: If you know anyone in a Gulf or Middle Eastern state who has had to scramble in a similar way, or is experiencing the war on the ground, please connect us! We would love to...
Who's Running Tehran?
<p>Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro</p><p>(00:41) - War Week Context</p><p>(01:56) - Reza Returns</p><p>(02:50) - How Long Can It Last</p><p>(08:02) - Damage and...
Decapitation Strike
<p>Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran. </p><p>Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets</p><p>(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber...
Healthy Climate Skepticism (?)
<p>North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year’s forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and...
