The Julia La Roche Show
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%
<p>David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenb...
#421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike
<p>In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry...
#420 Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed
<p>New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “fa...
#419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About
<p>In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mort...
#418 Ray Dalio on the Risky Period for Investors, Bubble Warnings, and a Coming Debt Squeeze
<p>Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two...
#417 Nick Nemeth: The Biggest Turn in My Lifetime, Why Credit Contagion Could Hit Everything
<p>Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, hi...
#416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials
<p>The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more ho...
#415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix
<p>Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are...
#414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back
<p>Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan...
#413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock
<p>Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation...
