Oil Ground Up
Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.
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From Economic to Kinetic Statecraft: Enforcing US Oil Sanctions
<p>In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The discussion explores the unprecedented transition in Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved from an aggressive naval blockade to a tightly managed stabilization effort following the extraction of Nicolás Maduro. Regarding Iran, Ziemba examines the massive military buildup in the Middle East and evaluates the possibility of a pragmatic "deal" designed to lower global oil prices. The conversation also b...
The Outlook for Canadian Oil Production with Josef Schachter
<p>In this conversation, Josef Schachter discusses the current state of the oil market, emphasizing the ongoing energy super cycle and the challenges faced by both US and Canadian oil production. He highlights the limitations of OPEC in increasing production and the implications for global oil prices. Schachter also addresses the infrastructure challenges in Canada, the importance of refining margins, and the potential for investment in the sector as foreign companies return. The discussion concludes with an overview of the risks to the bullish outlook for oil prices and the future of the energy sector.</p>
The Ruble Fortress: Why Russia’s Oil Sector Thrives While the West Predicts Collapse
<p>In this episode of the Oil Groundup Podcast, host Rory Johnston welcomes Ronald Smith, a consultant with 25 years of experience analyzing the Russian oil and gas sector. The discussion delves into why Russia’s industry is far more complex than other OPEC+ members due to its vast refining sector and extensive pipeline networks that crisscross continental Asia. Smith explains the geographic evolution of production, highlighting West Siberia as the current "anchor" while exploring the future potential of Arctic and East Siberian greenfields. Listeners will learn about the immense logistical hurdles of operating in the world's largest swamp and the te...
Venezuela Under Remote Control: The Capture of Maduro and the Future of Global Oil
<p>This episode explores the extraordinary start to 2026 following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces and his subsequent transport to stand trial in New York. Host Rory Johnston is joined, once again, by Francisco Monaldi of Rice University’s Baker Institute to analyze the new "remote control" era of Venezuelan governance. The discussion details the installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president and her complex role as a pragmatist navigating the revolution’s survival under intense US pressure. Listeners will gain insights into the immediate market impact of 30 to 50 million barrels of stored oil being rerouted from t...
Inside the High-Stakes World of Wireline and Modern Fracking
<p>This episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast features host Rory Johnston in conversation with Andy De La Rosa, a senior field engineer with 15 years of experience in the wireline industry. De La Rosa describes wireline as the "tip of the spear" for the fracking process, utilizing specialized trucks with miles of steel conductive cable to send perforating guns downhole to fracture rock with shaped charges. Beyond the technicalities, the guests examine the wave of industry consolidation and how independent firms like Underdog Wireline survive market downturns.</p>
From Super Major to Super Surplus: Parsing Chaos in the Oil Market with Doug Terreson
<p>The Oil Ground Up podcast welcomes Doug Terreson to parse the dynamics of the chaotic and confusing current oil market. Terreson details his illustrious career path, which included drilling oil wells for Schlumberger, managing one of the world’s largest energy funds on the buy side at Putnam, and managing the global energy group at Morgan Stanley and Evercore for 30 years. He explains how his research note, "The Era of the Super Major" (1998), spurred the industry's most significant consolidation phase since 1911 by forcing companies to pivot from growing production to a value-based model. This focus on value was reinforced by...
What's at Stake with Venezuela's Oil Industry as US Military Activities Escalate
<p>The Trump Administration has gotten increasingly aggressive in its relations with Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela, accumulating a historic volume of US military capability in the Caribbean and cancelling a raft of oil sector operating licenses. Whether or not this leads to outright regime change, it seems like we are on the precipice of something major occurring on Venezuela.</p><p><br></p><p>What could all of this mean for Venezuela's chronically challenged but stupendously high potential oil industry? To help me explore this question, I'm joined today by Dr Francisco Monaldi, the director of the Latin America...
The Future of Canada's Oil Sands: Production, Pipelines and Policy
<p>The Western Canadian oil industry pumps more crude than most OPEC members but its production is located far from consuming markets and depends on a dizzying array of pipelines to connect that supply to end demand. At the same time, Canada's oil producers have had to navigate a quagmire of ever-shifting politics, policy, and regulations—especially concerning greenhouse gas emissions—that were widely seen to be restraining the sectors growth.</p><p><br></p><p>To help me dig into the meat of this discussion, frame the current position of the massive oil sands industry today and where we're head...
SuperSpiked: Arjun Murti on Why "Super Volatility" Replaced the Super Cycle
<p>Rory Johnston welcomes Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst with 33 years of experience covering the full energy value chain. Murti discusses his Substack, SuperSpiked, explaining that the branding harkens back to the 2004 call for a super cycle, though the current framework emphasizes multi-year "super volatility" rather than a new permanent price state. The experts dive into the core short-term commodity debate, analyzing the divergence in demand forecasts between the "big three" agencies and critiquing the inconsistency between high oversupply forecasts and only short-term low price predictions. Murti firmly pushes back on the...
The DOPE Cycle: Doubt, Optimism, and Oil Market History
<p>This episode of the Oil Ground Up, hosted by Rory Johnston, welcomes back Robert Connors of Crude Chronicles to delve into the broad historical sweep of oil market cycles. Connors explains his long-term analysis, introducing the "DOPE cycle" (Doubt, Optimism, Parabolic Euphoria), and suggests the current oil market finds itself in the early "doubt wave" phase. The discussion examines key market drivers, including Connors' thesis that rising marginal costs of non-OPEC production effectively set a higher floor for future oil prices. Furthermore, they analyze granular, higher-frequency labor data which indicates that the oil and gas labor market has "cracked"...
