The Lumber Word
Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.
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EP 170: Freight Is Eating the Lumber Market
<p>This week on The Lumber Word, the crew tackles the biggest issue in lumber today: freight. From Buffalo reloads buried under railcars to Southern Pine mills struggling with transportation costs, the conversation centers on how logistics—not mill prices—are driving the market. The team discusses tightening inventories, shrinking North American supply, species substitution, and why prompt wood may be worth more than ever. Gregg doubles down on his bullish lumber outlook, while the group debates whether SPF is significantly undervalued heading into the second half of 2026. If freight remains tight and supply stays constrained, the market could be sett...
EP 169: Commando Lumber Trading: Tight Wood, No Trucks, No Hedge
<p>The crew breaks down a lumber market that feels calm on the surface but is getting tighter underneath. Trucking is a disaster, inventories stay lean, mills are not panicking, and buyers still have not adjusted.</p> <p>0:00-4:00 - College kids, Waymos, and bad decisions after midnight</p> <p>4:00-9:00 - SYP stabilizes but trucking wrecks pricing</p> <p>9:00-15:00 - Freight market insanity and disappearing trucks</p> <p>15:00-22:00 - Spruce stays steady while inventories thin out</p> <p>22:00-28:00 - Canadian curtailments and supply fears build</p> <p>28:00-34:00 - Reloads emptying and buyers still underbought</p> <...
EP 168: Is Lumber Coiling for a Summer Breakout?
<p>This week on The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and guest Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies break down one of the most interesting lumber markets in years. The crew discusses low volatility, lean inventories, seasonal strength, futures market psychology, pine versus spruce pricing, multifamily demand, and why the next major lumber move could happen fast. The episode also explores European lumber markets, supply chain transparency, and current housing market realities.</p> Timeline 0:00 – Intro & Mike Wisnefski joins 1:45 – Market feels split 4:10 – Western lumber floor 7:30 – Seasonal market trends 12:00 – Curtailments & duties 15:20 – Futures pessimism 17:30 – Housing & multifamily 22:45 – Volatility discussion 27:00 – Inventory strategy 29:00 – Pine vs spruce 35:30 – Europe market insights...
EP 167: Is Lumber Quietly Setting Up for Another Bull Run?
<p>This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?</p> Timeline <p>0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap aft...
EP 166: Is Freight the Real Lumber Market Right Now?
<p>This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price.</p> Timeline (Condensed) <p>0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset</p> <p>2:00 – Pine...
EP 165: Spring-time Round Up
Summary <p>Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market.<br> <br> Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check.<br> <br> The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?</p> Timeline <p>0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility</p> <p>2:00 – Truck vs rail market split</p> <p>4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy</p> <p>6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply</p> <p>...
EP 164: The K-Shaped Economy—Who’s Pulling the Wagon?
<p>Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction.<br> <br> The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. <br> <br> They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration tre...
EP 163: Paywalls, Pine Rips, and Freight Freakouts
<p>Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first!<br> The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, <br> and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, <br> pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.<br> <br> </p> Timestamps: <p>0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)</p> <p>4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why noth...
EP 162: Is Lumber Having Its WTF Moment?
<p>Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down.<br> <br> From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might...
EP 161: Miss It Today, Pay Up Tomorrow
<p>The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started.</p> Timeline <p>0:00 – Market flips from slow to active</p> <p>2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength</p> <p>7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov</p> <p>10:00 – Order files into April...
