Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped
Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective.
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Japan Outlook: Oil Risk and Summit Stakes
<p>GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old alliances and familiar playbooks in a world that feels more fractured and transactional? Boling walks through the risks and what Japan needs to get right.</p> <p><p>Questions...
Oil Without a Way Out
<p>Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outlook, weighing up winners and losers. In markets moving by the hour, even keeping track of the day of the week has become a challenge.</p> <p><p>Questions or Comments...
A Tense Situation in the Middle East
<p>GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global economy will prove resilient. And while strikes across the region are alarming, Gulf Cooperation Council economies have sufficient depth and resilience, so the regional economic hit should also remain small.<...
Global Economy Unwrapped
<p>Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective.</p> <p><p>Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. </p><p>To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View.</p></p><br/> <p>Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.ads...
Tariff Trouble and the Dollar Dilemma
<p>Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a sudden depreciation, and how would it ripple through balance sheets, trade, and the real economy?</p> <p><p>Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. </p...
U.K. Twists and Turns
<p>David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome development. The team also touches on investment in artificial intelligence and its implications for employment in the U.K.’s services-oriented economy.</p> <p><p>Questions or Comments, please em...
Asia Spotlight: Oil, Trade and Tariffs
<p>Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its own trade agreement with Washington, while South Korea faces higher U.S. tariffs after delays in legislating its deal. The team rounds up with a quick discussion on unusual currency movements in...
Greenland, Green Shoots
<p>Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? Meanwhile, the immediate crisis over Greenland appears to have faded with President Trump dropping his tariff threats, but Andrew questions whether this was driven more by domestic U.S. politics rather than Europe’s response. Finally, the...
How to talk to your dog about 30-year JGBs
<p>Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfortable. Geopolitics and tariffs dominate the risks, with U.S.-China relations facing a key test ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in April. Tensions closer at home are another concern, as Beijing ramps up its diplomatic feud with...
Could Greenland derail European growth?
<p>Gaurav is joined by Barbara, Andrew and Kamil for a deep dive discussion on the European outlook. Will 2026 be the year that euro zone growth finally picks up momentum? The team offer a number of reasons for optimism, including the fading impact from last year’s U.S. tariffs, lower interest rates, an apparent upturn in the global industrial cycle and the huge fiscal boost set to feed through in Germany. But as the rapidly-evolving crisis over Greenland illustrates, there are still plenty of ways this cautiously optimistic outlook could be derailed.</p> <p><p>Questions or Comments, please em...
