Geopolitical Cousins
Geopolitical Cousins throws together analysts Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic for some of the most in-depth, off-the-wall geopolitical analysis in the world.
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Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior
<p>The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption. </p><p>His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>00:00 Welcome</p><p>01:32 Beer And Banter</p><p>05:05 Trump Pause And Troops</p><p>06:43 Oil Shock Timeline</p><p>08:41 Houthis And Red Sea</p><p>1...
Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation
<p>Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts: </p><p>(Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????</p><p>They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup</p><p>(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter</p><p>(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos</p><p>(04:49) - Cuba Iran an...
They Don't Want the Smoke
<p>Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!</p><p>(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap</p><p>(02:15) - Trump War Quotes</p><p>(02:54) - Menu Metaphor</p><p>(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity</p><...
Epic Heat Check
<p>Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Welcome </p><p>(00:47) - Oval Office Firings</p><p>(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War</p><p>(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat<...
Why Hormuz Matters
<p>We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson</p><p>(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters</p><p>(02:47) - Shipping...
Thin Ice
<p>Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also...
The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head
<p>The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe. </p><p>History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the...
The Board of Peace (And Other Jokes)
<p>No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation. </p><p>Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyin...
Mailbag!
<p>You've been writing us questions, thoughts, prayers, and lambasting criticism for months - so today we're finally taking a dive into the inbox. Holy crap there's a lot here. Y'all mentioned The Wire, TDSDS, starting careers in geopolitical analysis, tech nationalism, the balkanization of the internet, and sooooo much more. Tune in to hear it all :) Thanks y'all.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Intro</p><p>(02:33) - The Wire</p><p>(05:25) - Media Consumption and Bias</p><p>(06:46) - Trump Derangement Syndrome and Strategic Thinking</p><p>(16:16) - Effective Media Consumption Strategies</p><p>(28:23...
The New Rules
<p>The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.</p><p>--</p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>(00:00) - Introduction</p><p>(00:47) - Current Events</p><p>(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis</p><p>(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict</p><p>(38:45) - German...
