Blain's Morning Porridge
Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.
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Ronald Reagan as President. Compare and Contrast.
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge November 3rd 2026 </p><p>“Are you better off than you were two years ago?”</p><p>Today’s US Midterms are a Referendum on the Presidency – and will be consequential for global markets. The result will depend entirely how many Republicans are still minded to Vote for MAGA. They might want to think back to an earlier age, the Republican President Ronald Reagan, and ask what the current incumbent and Reagan have in common, if anything.</p><p>Key Takeways</p>Ronald Reagan is a benchmark of Presidential Leadership. He was the great communicator who represented...
The Three-Body Problem for Markets
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge November 2nd, 2026</p><p>“Fascism is a counter-revolution against a revolution that never took place.”</p><p>Rising market instability looks inevitable as the AI meltdown, the US Midterms and European political riots, and the geopolitical risks from the US vs China hegemonic challenge reach crisis points concurrently. It’s a classic Three Body Problem – making it almost impossible to logically predict what happens next. Sit back and watch for the opportunities – they will emerge, but not where you expect them.</p><p>Key Takeaways:</p>There is rising market contagion risk as the AI bubble implo...
Key Considerations in Defence Investment
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge 30th, October 2026</p><p>“But it’s the thin red line of heroes when the drums begin to roll…”</p><p>Nobody wants to pay taxes or spend money on defence. But both are inevitable. Investment in security has the potential for significant returns for investors and can drive considerable economic gains for nations that spend wisely. History is written by the victors, but the costs of underfunded defence are very clear – ask the losers how well scrimping on Defence worked for them.</p><p>Key Takeaways:</p>Defence will be a long-term investment theme. Geopolitical...
Where Have All the Foreign UST buyers gone?
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge October 28th, 2026 </p><p>“Which is worse? Losing your fear of God or losing your belief in the US Treasury Market?”</p><p>The US treasury market is the deepest and most liquid market on the planet. But over the last year, foreign investors have been walking away. Why? Is it simply fear of a bear market from rising inflation and the rising quantum of US debt, or the sheer scale of the refinancing required. Or is it more fundamental in terms of geopolitics, a changing investment market, and better returns elsewhere. If so, it’s a less...
What is Anthropic really worth?
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge October 27th, 2026</p><p>“All that glitters is not gold…”</p><p>AI is changing the world. It’s the greatest new, new thing ever… since the last new, new thing and till the next new, new thing emerges. Given all the risks around business adoption, growth, the bursting bubble in NeoCloud debt, and AI competition, can you really justify a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic, a firm that recorded a $81 bln loss over the first half of this year!</p><p>Key Takeaways</p>AI is the future. Anthropic looks like a major technology winner – but not at any...
The Next War Has Already Begun – Invest Accordingly.
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge 26th, October 2026 </p><p>“The supreme Art of War is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”</p><p>Global conflict risks are rising. The wars in Ukraine and the Gulf are the openers. However, a global conflict for hegemonic power between China and the USA is more likely to take the form of “Grey” conflict than outright “kinetics” between them – triggering further inflation threats, political and economic disruption, and supply chain destabilisation driven by ongoing cyber-attacks, fake news and regional conflict. The resilience of nations will be the critical factor – and that means being prepared to defend themselv...
With unlimited wealth comes unconstrained power.
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd October 2026</p><p>“I am going to make you an offer you can’t refuse.”</p><p>Elon Musk is the richest man in history. With great wealth comes great power and influence. How wisely is Musk wielding that power? Switching off Starlink in Ukraine, threatening Europe with “devastating consequences” on satellite broadband, and whatever deals he doing on the regulation of his companies all beg closer examination. He raises questions about his accountability, and whose interests he serves.</p><p>Key Takeaways:</p>Extreme wealth is no longer confined to domestic power – Elon Musk shows it...
People in Glass Houses should be very careful throwing stones…
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge 21st October 2026</p><p>“Pride cometh before the fall…”</p><p>It really does feel the Atlantic Ocean got much, much wider. As Europe struggles with riots and populism, financiers in the USA dismiss Yoorp as irrelevant, and think their economy is doing just great, fuelled by the AI boom and rising earnings. What they miss is the vulnerability of the economy to a debt shock and rising Treasury refinancing risk.</p><p>Key Takeaways:</p>America’s apparent economic strength masks considerable financial vulnerability – the USA’s high government debt, escalating and persistent deficits, and rising ref...
French Riots – Coming to a high street neat you?
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th October 2026</p><p>“Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men.”</p><p>The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board. </p><p>Key Takeaways:</p>A European Sovereign...
Try Forest Bathing… It might improve sentiment.
<p>Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th October 2026</p><p>“A walk in the woods will change the way you respond to the everyday enshitification of everything”</p><p>Markets have a habit of watching the wrong things – which why they are repeatedly shocked by No-See-Ums. Perhaps, the real issue isn’t how economies miss growth or inflation targets, but how miserable or unhappy the electorate becomes? Traditional politics are failing in the democratic nations, while populism is set to create wider instabilities. Maybe it’s time to go “forest bathing” in the autumnal glory and focus on resiliency and satisfaction?</p><p>Key Takeaway...
