The Event Horizon Podcast
A newsletter about the nascent prediction markets industry, including news, analysis and legal insights at Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and beyond. nexteventhorizon.substack.com
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Episode 23: Silliness In Prediction Markets About Spotify
<p>Did you know you can bet on Kalshi on how many Spotify streams artists will get? Well, of course you can, because you can bet on almost anything on Kalshi. But what happens when someone tries to manipulate the streaming metrics? We found that out last week! Daniel O’Boyle of InGame helps break down the latest nonsense.</p><p>First, this at The Event Horizonhttps://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/how-artificial-spotify-streams-broke-kalshi-market</p><p>Here’s from a story on Wired: https://www.wired.com/story/spotify-streaming-manipulation-prediction-markets-polymarket-kalshi/</p><p>This week, the situation hit a boiling point when the song “Earrin...
Episode 22: Kalshi Did A Deal With FIFA... Or Did It?
<p>Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I did an “emergency” podcast today to deal with all of the news that dropped on Friday morning. That includes a deal between Kalshi and FIFA…or rather Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet, apparently?</p><p>Kalshi and ADI Predictstreet Announce Strategic Partnership to Expand Global Prediction Market Footprint during World Cup™ and Beyond (press release): ADI Predictstreet, the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026™, today announced a strategic branding and product partnership with Kalshi, the world’s leading prediction market exchange. This collaboration will expand prediction markets globally, providing billions of fans with n...
Episode 21: Kalshi Volume Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop Growing
<p>Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I break down recent news in prediction markets, including Kalshi nearing $9 billion in weekly volume, new exchanges getting a green light, and a bad story for Polymarket.</p><p>Kalshi volume (paywall at The Closing Line)</p><p>ProphetX</p><p>Novig</p><p>Rothera</p><p>WSJ on Polymarket</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 20: George Santos + Prediction Markets? Really?
<p>Daniel O’Boyle of InGame and I are still trying to process that the prediction markets news cycle now includes George Santos, somehow. We break down all the recent news in in the industry.</p><p>Plus I talk with Kindbridge Behavioral Health CEO Daniel Umfleet about prediction markets, addiction, and treatment. </p><p>News recap and analysis at the start; Interview with Kindbridge CEO at 31:13.</p><p>George Santos, lol</p><p>https://www.ingame.com/doj-investigating-santos-kalshi-trades/</p><p>THERE WAS A BIG ($5,000) HEDGE AT AN NYC BAR</p><p>https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/mattress-mack-walked-so-kalshi-could-run</p><p>Ru...
Episode 19: Inside The Latest Polymarket Insider Trading Case
<p>The Polymarket-Google fiasco:</p><p>https://www.ingame.com/google-engineer-polymarket-insider-trading/</p><p>https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-google-case-and-insider-trading</p><p>Trump talks prediction markets</p><p>https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/trump-some-prediction-market-opponents-are-scum</p><p>Here come new exchanges:</p><p>DraftKings... https://www.ingame.com/draftkings-self-certifies-first-contracts/</p><p>Rothera from Robinhood... https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/robinhood-cfo-says-most-prediction-flow-moving-to-rothera</p><p>When will SCOTUS tackle prediction markets?</p><p>https://www.ingame.com/nj-petition-scotus-prediction-market/</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack...
Episode 18: Senators, CAOCs And Survivor Betting
<p>Senators talking prediction markets: https://closingline.substack.com/p/senators-were-fired-up-about-prediction-markets-at-hearing</p><p>Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contracts!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/its-not-a-parlay-its-a-combinatoric-athletic-outcome-contract</p><p>Betting On Survivor:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/stop-letting-people-bet-on-survivor</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 17: Everyone Is Putting Kalshi Volume Under The Microscope
<p>Breaking down Kalshi retail handle and parlays: https://www.ingame.com/kalshis-true-betting-handle-draftkings-fanduel/</p><p>https://www.sportico.com/business/sports-betting/2026/kalshi-parlays-retail-bettor-losses-rfq-1234894471/</p><p>Polymarket US is fully live: https://www.ingame.com/polymarket-us-live-without-waitlist/</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 16: The Big Sportsbooks Talk A Big Game On Prediction Market Plans
<p>FanDuel and DraftKings on prediction markets:https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-fanduel-and-prediction-markets-q1https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-draftkings-and-genius-sports-said-about-prediction-markets-q1-earnings</p><p>Parlay volume!https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/most-of-kalshis-recent-volume-growth-from-parlays</p><p>Maryland and Massachusetts vs. Kalshihttps://www.ingame.com/fourth-circuit-judges-wary-kalshi-maryland/https://www.ingame.com/kalshi-massachusetts-supreme-court-questions/</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 15: Everyone Has A Comment On Prediction Markets
<p>Everyone had comments for the CFTC on prediction markets rule making: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/the-most-interesting-comments-on-cftc-rulemaking-for-prediction-markets </p><p>Senate bans prediction market trading by senators: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/30/congress/new-ban-on-prediction-market-trading-00901232</p><p>Robinhood Q1 earnings and prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/what-we-learned-about-robinhood-and</p><p>Polymarket international to the U.S.?: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/28/polymarket-seeks-cftc-approval-to-reopen-main-exchange-to-u-s-traders</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
Episode 14: Candidates And A Soldier Betting On Themselves Is A Problem
<p>Soldier arrested for Maduro betting: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/us-soldier-arrested-for-maduro-bets</p><p>Three candidates caught betting on themselves: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/five-questions-after-kalshi-fines</p><p>NY sues prediction markets: https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/new-york-ag-sues-coinbase-gemini</p> <br/><br/>This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com
