Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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Michael Mauboussin | AI, Base Rates, and Investing in the New Economy
<p>In this inaugural episode of our new show, The Intangible Economy with Kai Wu, we explore how AI, intangible assets, and unprecedented capital investment are reshaping the future of markets. Michael Mauboussin joins Kai to break down why today’s AI expectations may be historically unmatched—and what that means for investors trying to assess risk, returns, and who ultimately captures value.</p><p>Subscribe on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe on Apple</p><p><br></p><p>The conversation moves from base rates and AI growth expectations to competitive dynamics, capital cycles, and the fundamental shift toward intangible-driven business mode...
The Stagflation Regime | Aahan Menon on What Works When Stocks and Bonds Don’t
<p>This episode of Excess Returns features Aahan Menon of Prometheus Research breaking down the growing risk of an inflation shock driven by energy markets and what it means for investors. The discussion explores how a potential shift toward stagflation could challenge traditional stock and bond portfolios and why commodities, trend following, and systematic frameworks may be better suited for the current environment.</p><p>Prometheus Research<br>https://www.prometheus-research.com</p><p>Aahan Menon Twitter<br>https://x.com/@AahanPrometheus</p><p>Why the current inflation shock may be one of the most significant in recent history</p><...
6x Earnings. 10x Potential. | Harris Kupperman on the Inflections Wall Street Misses
<p>This episode explores Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s framework for “inflection investing” and how he identifies asymmetric opportunities across global markets. The conversation dives into why he believes U.S. equities are structurally challenged, where he sees better opportunities globally, and how macro, politics, and capital flows drive major investing inflections.</p><p>Inflection investing and identifying asymmetric opportunities<br>How macro and politics create winners and losers in markets<br>The Argentina case study and why the stock exchange may outperform the country<br>How to structure trades with limited downside and multi-bagger upside<br>Time horizon advantages versus short-term...
The Moment Common Knowledge Changed | Last Call - With Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman
<p>This episode of our new market wrap show Last Call breaks down the biggest market drivers right now through three distinct lenses: macro, narrative, and flows. With an oil shock driven by geopolitical conflict, rising volatility, and conflicting economic signals, the discussion focuses on what actually matters beneath the surface and how investors should think about positioning in an environment where nothing is clearly priced in.</p><p>Follow Last Call on Spotify</p><p>Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts</p><p>Jack and Matt bring together Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, and Eric Pachman to analyze the ripple eff...
The Private Credit Apocalypse That Isn’t Coming | Larry Swedroe Dispels the Myths
<p>In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to break down one of the most debated topics in markets today: private credit. Larry walks through what private credit actually is, why it has grown so rapidly since 2008, and where he believes the biggest misconceptions and risks are for investors.</p><p>We dig into the structure of the market, how liquidity and credit risk really work beneath the surface, and why the media narrative around private credit may be overstating systemic risks. We also explore how investors should think about diversification, illiquidity premiums, and the...
Nothing Is Priced In | Bob Elliott on Why Investors Are Misreading the Oil Shock
<p>This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an income-driven to a savings-driven system.</p><p>The conversation explores why markets may be mispricing the economic impact of higher oil prices, how inflation and growth dynamics could unfold, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile macro environment.</p><p>Bob also breaks down how to think about global macro investing today, including why traditional portfolios may be poorly positioned for a wider range of outcomes, how macro managers are...
The 0.1% Winners | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Why Outliers Drive Returns
<p>Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify</p><p>Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple</p><p>In this episode of our new show, 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer explore how investors should think about base rates, extreme outcomes, and the realities of long-term wealth creation in markets. Applying the work of Michael Mauboussin, the conversation challenges conventional ideas like mean reversion and highlights why a small number of companies drive most stock market returns—and what that means for portfolio construction.</p><p>This episode brings together Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer to explore how invest...
Big Decline. Options Support Gone | Brent Kochuba on the Fragile Market Setup
<p>Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts</p><p>This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead.</p><p>Brent Kochuba on Twitter<br>https://twitter.com/SpotGamma</p><p>SpotGamma Website<br>https://spotgamma.com</p><p>Topics covered in thi...
The War Markets Can't Price | Jared Dillian on the Regime Change Investors Miss
<p>In this episode, Jared Dillian joins Excess Returns to break down why markets consistently misprice major regime shifts, geopolitical risks, and inflation shocks—and what that means for investors today. The conversation explores how changing correlations, Fed policy constraints, commodities, and portfolio construction are reshaping the investing playbook in 2026.</p><p>Jared Dillian Twitter<br />https://twitter.com/DailyDirtNap</p><p>Daily Dirt Nap<br />https://www.dailydirtnap.com</p><p>Topics Covered</p><p>Why markets fail to price low-frequency, high-impact events like war and geopolitical shocks</p><p>The concept of regime change and why investors struggle to...
They Call It a Lottery Ticket. The Data Says Otherwise | D.A. Wallach on The Hidden Alpha of Biotech
<p>Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this market. We also explore the cycles that have driven biotech performance, the impact of interest rates and capital flows, and how AI and global competition may reshape the industry in the years ahead.</p><p>D.A. Wallach – Tw...
