Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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Chris Davis on Durability, AI Disruption, and the Risks Investors Are Missing
<p>This episode with Chris Davis of Davis Advisors explores how investors should think about risk, valuation, and opportunity in a market defined by high valuations, technological disruption, and major macro shifts. Davis lays out a framework for navigating uncertainty, explains why durability matters more than ever, and shares hard-earned lessons on selling great companies too early.</p><p>Davis Advisors<br>https://www.davisadvisors.com</p><p>Topics Covered</p><p>Why high valuations signal complacency even in an uncertain macro environment</p><p>The three major forces reshaping markets: higher cost of capital, deglobalization, and AI</p><p>...
Buy High, Sell Higher | Travis Prentice on Dispersion, Passive's Structural Risk and Why 52 Week Highs Don't Mean What You Think
<p>This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors. </p><p>Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should think about momentum, quality, and diversification in a rapidly changing environment.</p><p>Papers and Resources Discussed:</p><p>Risks Hiding in Plain Sight<br>https://www.informedmomentum.com/risks-hiding-in-plain-sight-how-the-dominance-of-passive-investing-is-reshaping-market-risk/</p><p>Is Quality Broken?<br>http...
The Secular Plateau | Chris Bloomstran on Why We May Be at Peak Valuations
<p>This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.</p><p>Semper Augustus Investments<br />https://www.semperaugustus.com</p><p>Topics covered:</p><p>Why extreme market concentration in the Mag 7 may create long-term risks</p><p>The concept of a “secular plateau” vs a market peak</p><p>How AI capex could become a classi...
We Asked David Rosenberg Why He Owns Almost No US Stocks — and What He Holds Instead
<p>This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume.</p><p>Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also o...
The Resilience No One Trusts | Brent Donnelly on Why War and Oil Haven’t Broken This Market
<p>Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today.</p><p>Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a...
The Bear Market No One Sees | Liz Ann Sonders on the Real Story Indexes Hide
<p>Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders.</p><p>Follow Liz Ann on Twitter<br />https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders</p><p>Liz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered</p><p>How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy</p>...
The Forever Invariable Truth | Jim Grant on War, Inflation, and What Comes Next
<p>This episode features Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer on inflation, war, monetary policy, and the long arc of credit cycles. Grant explains why inflation is ultimately driven by monetary debasement and why war, fiscal policy, and central bank actions may be setting the stage for a more persistent inflationary regime than markets expect.</p><p>We explore how today’s environment compares to past inflationary periods, the hidden risks in credit markets and public debt, and what history teaches us about AI investment booms, oil shocks, and monetary disruption. Grant also discusses trust in financial systems, the...
The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
<p>Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts</p><p>This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.</p><p>They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elev...
The Risk at the End of the Whip | GMO’s Tom Hancock on Finding Conviction Amid the AI Hype
<p>This episode of Excess Returns features GMO’s Tom Hancock on how to think about AI as an investment opportunity and what truly defines “quality” in today’s market. The conversation breaks down the AI value chain, challenges common assumptions about where value will accrue, and ties it all back to building durable portfolios in a rapidly changing technological landscape.</p><p>Tom walks through his “Hype vs High Conviction” framework, explaining why identifying the right layer of the AI ecosystem may matter more than simply betting on the theme itself, and why balance sheets, durability, and capital allocation remain criti...
The Walmart Indicator Just Hit 2008 Levels | Jim Paulsen on the Big Difference This Time
<p>This episode of Excess Returns features Jim Paulsen breaking down the current macro environment through a series of powerful indicators, including oil, interest rates, consumer behavior, and market sentiment. The discussion explores whether today’s environment signals a slowing economy—or the early stages of a new bull market hidden beneath the surface.</p><p><br></p><p>Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify</p><p><br></p><p>Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts</p><p></p><p>Jim walks through a wide range of charts and frameworks, from the Walmart vs. luxury retail s...
