Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
10
He Studied Every Bear Market Since 1929 | Ben Carlson on How the Worst Starting Point Still Made 8%
<p>Ben Carlson joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book Risk and Reward and the biggest lessons investors can learn from market history. We cover how to think about risk, inflation, market timing, bear markets, lost decades, diversification, compounding and why surviving volatility is the key to building long-term wealth.</p><p>Ben's Book<br />https://amzn.to/4dFHsQz</p><p>Ben Carlson on X<br />https://x.com/awealthofcs</p><p>Ben's Blog<br />https://awealthofcommonsense.com/</p><p>Main topics covered:</p><p>Why risk is hard to define and always involves trade-offs</p><p>How vivid...
Is AI Still in 1995? Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on the Next Phase of the AI Boom
<p>AI is moving from hype to real enterprise adoption, and Gene Munster and Doug Clinton join Excess Returns to explain what that means for investors, technology stocks, energy demand, jobs and the next phase of the AI trade. We discuss why AI may still be early in its bubble cycle, how frontier models like GPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok compare, why AI-powered investing is becoming more practical, and where the biggest second-order opportunities may emerge.</p><p>Gene Munster on X<br />https://x.com/munster_gene</p><p>Doug Clinton on X<br />https://x.com/dougclinton</p><...
Jeremy Grantham on AI, Bubbles and Why Mean Reversion Lives On
<p>Jeremy Grantham joins Excess Returns to discuss The Making of a Permabear, mean reversion, market bubbles, AI, the Magnificent 7, and the long-term lessons investors can take from his career at GMO. We cover why he rejects the simple “permabear” label, how he thinks about valuation and bubbles, why AI may be both transformative and dangerous for investors, and why long-term thinking is so hard but so essential.</p><p>The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World<br />https://groveatlantic.com/book/the-making-of-a-permabear/</p><p>GMO<br />https://www.gmo.com/americas/</p><p>Gr...
He Studied the Financial System for Decades | Marc Rubinstein on Where the Real Risk Is
<p>Marc Rubinstein joins Excess Returns to explain what private credit, bank earnings, insurance balance sheets, fintech growth, and arbitrage firms reveal about the modern financial system. The conversation covers why private credit risks may not be systemic in the traditional banking-crisis sense, but still matter for investors because of redemption gates, hidden leverage, opaque structures, incentive conflicts, and correlations that can spike when markets are under stress.</p><p>Marc Rubinstein on X<br />https://x.com/MarcRuby</p><p>Net Interest<br />https://www.netinterest.co/</p><p>In this episode, we discuss:</p><p>Why the Fed...
Lessons from Investing Through Bubble Regimes with Andy Constan
<p>First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build.</p><p>Andy Constan on X<br>https://x.com/dampedspring</p><p>Damped Spring Advisors<br>https://dampedspring.com/</p><p>Topics covered:</p><p>Why bu...
He Wrote the Book on Bubbles | Edward Chancellor on If AI is Different
<p>Edward Chancellor joins Kai Wu on the latest episode of the Intangible Economy to discuss what financial history and capital cycle theory can teach investors about today’s AI boom. They explore why transformative technologies can still produce terrible investor returns, how overinvestment develops, where anti-bubbles may be forming, and what past episodes like the railway mania, the dot-com bubble, China’s investment boom and the post-2008 interest rate regime suggest about the risks and opportunities today.</p><p>Subscribe on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe on Apple</p><p>Topics covered:</p><p>How capital cycle theory applies to the AI d...
We Asked an Options Expert Why This Melt Up Hasn’t Broken — and Which Signal Could End It
<p>Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.</p><p>Guest Links</p><p>Brent Kochuba on X<br>https://x.com/spotgamma</p><p>SpotGamma<br>https://spotgamma.com/</p><p>Topics Covered</p><p>Why the market ha...
We Asked a $4.5B Quant Manager Why the S&P 500 Is Just 46 Stocks — and Why Small Caps Aren't Dead
<p>Elena Khoziaeva, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss factor investing, small caps, value investing, market concentration, intangibles, passive investing, market neutral strategies, and the role of AI in quantitative investment research.</p><p>We cover how Bridgeway combines disciplined quantitative models with human judgment, why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than investors think, and how investors can think about diversification when mega-cap growth stocks dominate market returns.</p><p>Bridgeway Capital Management<br />https://bridgeway.com/</p><p>I Know What You Did Last Summer<br />https://bridgeway...
The Last Moat | Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel on the Stock Picking Edge AI Can’t Replicate
<p>This episode of our new showThe 100 Year Thinkers brings together Chris Mayer and Ian Cassel for a deep discussion on long-term stock picking, microcap investing, business quality, AI disruption, management teams, and the behavioral skills that separate great investors from great analysts.</p><p>They explore why the edge in investing may increasingly come from judgment, presence, relationships, patience, and the ability to hold the right businesses through uncertainty.</p><p>Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers on Apple</p><p>Topics Covered</p><p>Why being present with management teams may stil...
We Asked Rich Bernstein and Chris Davis Why This Market Isn’t as Safe as It Feels
<p>This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.</p><p>Subscribe on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe on Apple</p><p>Topics Covered</p><p>Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional inve...
