Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
10
The Fed Is Fighting the Wrong War | Jim Paulsen on Why 3% Inflation Isn't the Problem
<p>In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim’s latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead.</p><p>Topics covered in this episode:<br>• The state of inflation and wh...
The One Lesson | 50+ Great Investors Share the One Thing They Would Teach You
<p>In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection highlights common themes around patience, discipline, humility, diversification, risk management, and long-term thinking, while revealing how great investors navigate markets, behavior, and uncertainty.</p><p>Main topics covered:</p><p>Why investing is about preserving and growing wealth, not...
World War AI | Ben Hunt on the Economic Consequences of the AI Boom
<p>In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are already feeling the strain, and what policies could still steer the country toward a healthier economic path.</p><...
The Real Estate Bust Was the Plan | Louis-Vincent Gave on China's Brute Force Growth Strategy
<p>In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country’s growth model, and what this means for global markets, AI competition, supply chains, currencies, energy, demographics, and the next decade of investing. If you want a clearer picture of China, global macro dynamics, and the forces shaping markets today, this is essential viewing.</p><p>Topics covered in this episode:<br...
The Pattern Is Staggering | Mary Ann Bartels on Why This Bull Market Is Just Getting Started
<p>In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she’s watching in 2026, and the case for international stocks, gold, and diversification. Mary Ann also explains why skepticism suggests we are not yet in a true bubble, how valuations fit into today’s market, and what investors should understand about cycles, inflation, and long-term compounding.</p><p>Topics Cove...
The Risk Isn't Where You Think | Carl Kaufman on AI Capex, Private Credit and the Hidden Bond Play
<p>In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than two decades managing one of the top multi-sector income funds, Carl offers clear, practical insights for investors trying to understand yields, defaults, duration, and where returns are most attractive today.</p><p>Main topics covered:<br />• Overview of investment grad...
The Bubble You Can't Short | Rob Arnott on What You Can Do Instead
<p>Follow Us on Substack:</p><p>https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/</p><p><br /></p><p>In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today’s market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future returns. He also digs into Research Affiliates’ latest work on fundamental indexing, growth investing, and the opportunities in international and emerging markets.</p><p>Topics covered:<br />• How Rob defines a bubble...
The Bull Market Where Everyone Feels Broke | Behind the Rise of Financial Nihilism
<p>Follow Click Beta:</p><p><br></p><p>Spotify</p><p>https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs</p><p><br></p><p>Apple Podcasts</p><p>https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457</p><p><br></p><p>YouTube:</p><p>https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns</p>
The Two Tailed Market Risk | Brent Kochuba on What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
<p>Subscribe on Spotify</p><p>https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf</p><p><br /></p><p>Subscribe on Apple Podcasts</p><p>https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009</p><p><br /></p><p>Subscribe on YouTube</p><p>https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw</p>
$1 Trillion AI Bet. $10 Billion in Profits | Bob Elliott on the AI Income That Isn't Coming
<p>Follow us on Substack</p><p>https://excessreturnspod.substack.com</p><p><br></p><p>In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.</p><p>Topi...
