Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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It Only Happens at Bottoms | Andy Constan on the Options Extreme That Showed Up at the Highs
<p>On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:</p><p>* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble</p><p>* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm...
Jack Schwager on Timeless Lessons from Elite Traders
<p>Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.</p><p>He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.</p><p>Jack Schwager on X<br />https://x.com/jackschwager</p><p>Market Wizards: The Next Generation<br />https://amzn.to/4psEOmH</p><p>Topics covered</p><p>How video games, prop trading...
The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report
<p>Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.</p><p>Eric Pachman on X<br />https://x.com/EricPachman</p><p>Data 4 The People<br />https://www.data4thepeople.com/</p><p>Main topics covered</p><p>Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories<...
Jim Paulsen Sees a Correction Coming | The 33 Charts That Turned Him Cautious
<p>Jim Paulsen joins us to explain why weakening economic momentum, tightening financial conditions and extreme AI enthusiasm could set the stage for a 10% to 20% stock market correction. We discuss labor market weakness, the growing divide between technology and the broader economy, fading tech leadership, market complacency, bond yields and the demographic forces that could keep US growth and inflation lower for years.</p><p>Jim also explains why he does not expect a recession or the end of the long-term bull market, but believes investors may need to reduce their concentration in AI and technology stocks as leadership quietly...
Big Uptrend. Tech Momentum Fading | Katie Stockton on the Rotation Investors Are Missing
<p>Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Excess Returns to break down the current technical setup for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, mega-cap tech, market breadth, sector rotation, international stocks and gold. We discuss why short-term momentum has weakened, what would confirm a more serious breakdown, how investors can use technical analysis for risk management, and where breakouts are appearing outside the AI and semiconductor trade.</p><p>Katie Stockton on X<br />https://x.com/StocktonKatie</p><p>Fairlead Strategies<br />https://www.fairleadstrategies.com/</p><p>Fairlead Funds<br />https://www.fairleadfunds.com/</p><p>Main topics covered</p><...
We Asked a $1 Billion Quant Manager Why Concentration Isn't a Warning — and Small Caps Aren't Dead
<p>Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market concentration, high valuations, IPO hype, factor investing and fixed income tax drag. We discuss why bubbles are hard to identify in real time, why diversification still matters, how valuation spreads shape expected returns, what AI capex does and does not tell us, and how investors can think about taxable bonds more efficiently.</p><p>Longview Research Partners<br />https://longviewresearchpartners.com/</p><p>Main topics covered</p><p>Why evidence-based investing matters during bubble-like markets</p><p>The...
The $600 Billion Loop | Jeff Klingelhofer on AI, the Return of Bonds and the Fed's Third Mandate
<p>Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the high-end consumer and the broader economy. We discuss fixed income markets, Fed policy, inflation, private credit, the national debt, business cycle risk and how investors should think about bonds after the end of the zero-rate era.</p><p>Aristotle Pacific<br />https://www.aristotlepacific.com/</p><p>Main topics covered</p><p>Why AI CapEx has become one of the biggest drivers of the US economy and stock market</p><p>How the high-end consumer, asset...
We Asked Meb Faber Why US Stocks Won for 250 Years — And If It Can Continue
<p>Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market.</p><p>We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500.</p><p>Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market<br />https://amzn.to/4f1H5Aw</p><p>Meb Faber on X<br...
Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?
<p>In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk.</p><p>Follow Last Call on Spotify</p><p>Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts</p><p>Main topics covered</p><p>Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month</p><p>How index flows...
The AI Trade, the Fed and the Next Phase of the Bull Market | Warren Pies
<p>Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.</p><p>Warren Pies on X<br />https://x.com/WarrenPies</p><p>3Fourteen Research<br />https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/</p><p>Caliban<br />https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/caliban</p><p>Main topics covered</p><p>Which bearish AI arguments...
