Excess Returns
Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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The SpaceX IPO Meets a Huge Options Expiration | Brent Kochuba on What Comes Next
<p>In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.</p><p>Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple Podcasts</p><p>Topics covered:</p><p>Why Sp...
Mike Green on When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO in History
<p>Mike Green joins Excess Returns to explain why passive investing, index construction, SpaceX, AI IPOs and mega-cap concentration may be changing how the stock market actually works. We discuss how passive flows can affect prices, why AI earnings may be more circular than investors think, what could break the current market narrative, and why the economy feels much weaker for many households than the headline data suggests.</p><p>Michael Green Twitter<br />https://x.com/profplum99</p><p>Simplify Asset Management<br />https://www.simplify.us/</p><p>Topics covered:</p><p>Why the SpaceX IPO has turned...
We Asked Vanguard’s Chief Economist Why AI Has Two Huge Tails — And Which One Wins
<p>AI could become the next general purpose technology, reshaping economic growth, inflation, interest rates and portfolio construction. Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joe Davis joins Excess Returns to explain why AI, demographics, fiscal deficits and globalization may define the next decade for investors, and why the biggest market winners may eventually come from outside the technology sector.</p><p>Coming into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investmentshttps://amzn.to/4v8L7OfVanguard Megatrends Research Hubhttps://explore.vanguard.com/megatrends.html</p><p>Topics Covered:</p><p>AI as a potential general purpose technology<br />Why long-term...
The SpaceX IPO… What Happens When $1.75 Trillion Meets 4% Float
<p>On the latest Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson discuss what could happen when SpaceX goes public and why this IPO may be as much a market structure problem as a valuation problem.</p><p>They break down the potential impact of a $1.75 trillion IPO, 100 times sales, a small free float, forced index buying, passive fund flows, options trading, bubble dynamics and what advisors should tell clients who want SpaceX exposure.</p><p>Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify</p><p>Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts</p><p>Dave Nadig<br>https://x.com/dave...
Tech Spending Has a Cash Problem | Jim Paulsen on the Two Signals That Could Trigger a Correction
<p>Jim Paulsen returns to Excess Returns to discuss why he is increasingly concerned about a meaningful stock market pullback, even though he does not expect a bear market. We cover the extreme divide between AI-driven “new era” stocks and the rest of the market, what oil and inflation could mean for the Fed, why tech earnings and market leadership have become so concentrated, and what investors should watch as the economy potentially shifts from inflation fears to growth fears.</p><p>Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify</p><p><br></p><p>Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Appl...
He Quantified 200 Years of Disruption | Kai Wu on Separating Software Survivors from Value Traps
<p>Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to break down his latest research on AI disruption, software stocks, value traps, and intangible moats. We discuss why software valuations have collapsed, why traditional value investing can fail during technological disruption, and how investors can separate potential AI winners from companies whose business models may be permanently impaired.</p><p>AI Disruption: Moats and Value Traps<br />https://www.sparklinecapital.com/post/ai-disruption</p><p>Kai Wu on X<br />https://x.com/ckaiwu</p><p>Sparkline Capital<br />https://www.sparklinecapital.com/</p><p>Topics Covered:</p><p>Why...
The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet
<p>In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.</p><p>Follow Last Call on Spotify</p><p>Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts</p><p>Topics Covered:</p><p>Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and va...
Cheap Is a Warning, Not a Thesis | Adam Parker on What This Market Is Really Pricing
<p>Adam Parker returns to Excess Returns to explain why the market may be trading more on future fundamentals than investors think, how AI is reshaping stock selection, and why traditional valuation signals may be less useful than they once were.</p><p>We discuss AI revenue exposure, software vs. semiconductors, Mag Seven positioning, gross margins, estimate achievability, spinoffs, and Adam’s highest-conviction contrarian sector idea.</p><p>Adam Parker on X<br />https://x.com/Adam_Parker_Tri</p><p>Trivariate Research<br />https://trivariateresearch.com/</p><p>Trivector Research<br />https://www.trivectorresearch.com</p><p>Topics covered:</p>...
He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
<p>Eric Crittenden joins Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck for a deep dive into trend following and managed futures.</p><p>They discuss why systematic macro trend investing works, how risk transfer creates a return premium, and how trend can fit inside a diversified all-weather portfolio.</p><p>Standpoint Funds</p><p>https://www.standpointfunds.com/</p><p>Topics covered:</p><p>Why trend following can struggle during fast reversals and thrive after regime shifts</p><p>How systematic investors manage whipsaws, drawdowns, and emotional pressure</p><p>The trade-offs between short-term, medium-term, and long-term trend signals</p><p>Why...
Cliff Asness on Bubbles, Private Equity and His Research Greatest Hits
<p>Cliff Asness returns to Excess Returns for a greatest hits tour through some of his most important and entertaining investing ideas.</p><p>We discuss bubble logic, today’s AI market comparisons, why volatility still matters as a risk measure, private equity “volatility laundering,” international diversification, market timing myths, pulling the goalie, and how machine learning is changing quantitative investing.</p><p>Cliff Asness on X<br />https://x.com/CliffordAsness</p><p>AQR Capital Management<br />https://www.aqr.com/</p><p>Papers Discussed</p><p>Bubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull<b...
