Saxo Market Call
Saxo Bank’s strategy team delivers market insights across all asset classes.
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US market is in a world of its own. Also: Hormuz disruption timelines
<p>Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was down heavily on Tuesday and parts of Asia practically crashed overnight. US market internals continue to throw off interesting signals as well. We also note that the market continues to price a relatively short disruption to shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz and discuss on what time scale the disruption would become more profound. Macro & FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy...
Risk off as market ponders new energy crisis from Iran conflict.
<p>Yesterday's positive close on the US equity market was a head scratcher and we try to put together a set of reasons how it was possible as we quickly yielded to a fresh round of deep risk off in Asia and Europe overnight and into this morning. Some thoughts on the "energy overlay" for all of the major currencies should this conflict persist and the energy price spike worsen and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.</p> <p>Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart...
War on Iran's regime: reactions, scenarios and uncertainties.
<p>Today we run through what has just happened in Iran, how global markets have reacted and the key developments to watch from here as we consider a few scenarios for where this takes us. So far, the market reaction outside of energy markets has been quite modest. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.</p> <p>Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.</p> <p>Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market...
Nvidia dumps: a big signal or just an options vol crush? Also, a rare earth rabbit hole.
<p>Today, a look at the market punishing Nvidia shares, and many other AI hardware-related stocks in Thursday's session - was this mostly about options-related flow or red flag related to long term growth concerns? Also, a look at other names with big moves, including Block ripping higher on announcing plans to fire 40% of its workforce due to AI productivity gains. Elsewhere, some thoughts on macro and FX and SMC goes down a rare earth rabbit hole on one of the rarest of all elements as well as the future of memory, a key hardware tech space to watch. Today's...
Market largely shrugs off blowout Nvidia report. Not a great look.
<p>Let's see if the US cash session (and the action into Friday's options expiry) tells us otherwise, but the market's very restrained reaction to Nvidia's very strong report might suggest a concern linked to the long term sustainability of Nvidia's prospects even amidst the incredible near term numbers. Elsewhere, we break down the results of other key software-as-a-service names reporting as well as some thoughts on Iran, a top geopolitical concern the market is ignoring, FX and more. Today's pod features Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.<...
AI disruption trade finally hit a speed bump. Nvidia and other key names reporting.
<p>The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the market. Elsewhere, we have Meta going big on its commitment to AMD and Nvidia and key software-as-a-service names reporting today after the close. In FX, the JPY is tumbling as dovish BoJ appointments have the market questioning whether Japan's PM Takaichi has any commitment to corral JPY weakness, which may have also provided the fresh lift in gold and silver. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.</p> <p>Two...
The AI apocalypse trade - when does it stop?
<p>The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that the market fears the future of AI will disrupt. IBM suddenly the latest victim on the announcement of the latest Anthropic tool that might be able to update old mainframe software. We try to assess the landscape and wonder when and whether the selling stops, or whether the sell-off sparks widening fears for the market. The latest on macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global...
SaaS stocks: high, moderate and low risk of AI disruption. Also: Nvidia up Wed.
<p>With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks with a systematic approach and how some names may have been unfairly punished recently while the business models of others are indeed in doubt. We also look at a number of important software names reporting this week, as well as previewing the biggest hardware name of them all: Nvidia, who reports earnings Wednesday. Also, Trump tariffs, macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John...
Recently boring Nvidia reports next week. Did we just see German green shoots?
<p>Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on record inflows. FX is deeper in limbo after USD shorts were squeezed - important to see how we close for the week there, especially for EURUSD as we saw a very pale green shoot from the German Manufacturing PMI today for the first time in years. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.</p> <p>Links discussed on the podcast...
It's all pivotal, whether US market sentiment, USD, JPY or geopolitics
<p>Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbreak of a war or regime change attempt in Iran. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.</p> <p>Two or three times per...
